Numbers game: Lor and Leung thinking big picture ahead of G3 Centenary Vase

Shots fired. Little Paradise's Hong Kong Classic Mile win was explosive and dominant – the kind of performance that plants a flag. But trainer Frankie Lor Fu-chuen and jockey Derek Leung Ka-chu aren't surrendering the BMW Hong Kong Derby just yet. 

They've got a horse called Numbers and the aim is for him to be at his best on Derby day, March 22. 

Lor made the calculated call to skip the Classic Mile entirely with his expensive Australian import, instead pointing him at Sunday's Group 3 Centenary Vase (1800m) at Sha Tin – against a small field of older, hardened types where Numbers carries bottom weight. It's not a soft option, but a measuring stick

"It's a step up in class but we have the light weight and we can see where he is at," Lor said. "If he can still do a job for us here, he has a great chance in the Derby."

The logic is pure big-picture thinking. Numbers has already won twice at 2000m in Hong Kong and arrived with serious staying credentials from Australia's major Classics. The sharp mile was never the target – March 22 is and unlike many of the Derby contenders, Numbers has no distance queries. 

Lor watched Little Paradise's finishing burst with admiration, but also with questions.

"Jimmy Ting's horse was really strong over that last quarter – wah, looked like he was flying. That last 200m, boom," he said. "But we don't know if he can do the same thing at 2,000m."

What Leung does know is what Numbers brings to Sunday's assignment: tactical speed and versatility. Sha Tin's 1800m can turn into a cat-and-mouse affair – the long run to the first turn often saps races of genuine tempo. He says Numbers can handle whatever unfolds.

"In Australia he showed he is comfortable sitting up near the speed, third or fourth, but if nobody wants to lead he can take the lead himself," Leung said. "He jumps fast and he can just go smoothly. If it's a strong tempo he will like it, but he can also take control himself."

Another win Sunday would be a statement: game on.

From there, the roadmap coverges. The Hong Kong Classic Cup (1800m) on March 1 brings a mouth-watering match-up with Little Paradise at set weights. Then comes the grand final – the Derby itself on March 22, the 2000m test where Lor and Lueng believe Numbers could hold the edge.

Little Paradise has thrown down a Derby marker. On Sunday, Numbers gets a chance to answer.