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India's emergence as a political and economic power is unstoppable and could
play a key neutralizing role over China's growing clout, according to experts
and officials at a forum in Washington.
``We no longer discuss the future of India: we say `the future is India,''' said
Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath at the conference organized by
the US-India Business Council.
In 30 years, he predicted, India would ``certainly have achieved'' 100 percent
literacy, become a developed country, enjoy the same fundamentals as the United
States, and should have resolved the thorny Kashmir problem with Pakistan.
The one-day conference assessed the US-India relationship over the past three
decades and debated what the next 30 years could hold for the partnership
between the world's most populous and oldest democracies.
Nath cited India's potential as a key global foreign investor, saying Indian
investments in Britain have already exceeded British investments in India. And
Indian investments in Australia have also outstripped Australian investment in
India.
``Even with China, with whom our trade a decade ago was just a billion dollars a
year, it is now more than a billion dollars a month,'' he said.
By 2035, ``I am confident that we would have provided a standard of living for
our people comparable at least to what developed countries enjoy today,'' a
buoyant Nath told his audience of largely American and Indian business leaders.
He said he would not like to compare India with China as comparisons were always
``invidious,'' but then quoted an executive of a Japanese multinational
corporation as telling him during a recent Tokyo visit that Japanese
investments in China had slowed down.
He quoted the Japanese executive as saying that ``it's very easy to get into
China, but we find it difficult to stay there; and it is very difficult to get
into India but very easy to stay there.''
Henry Kissinger, the influential ex-US secretary of state, said India, with its
nuclear arsenal and immense human resource potential, ``will emerge as a great
power'' but was unlikely to be part of any US design to become a counterweight
to China.
``India will be concerned with its own security and independence and it will
make its judgment on that basis,'' he said.
He added, ``I'm known in the United States as a strong advocate and one of the
originators of close relations with China. I believe that today. I am also a
strong advocate of close relations with India.''
But Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that
preserving a stable balance of power in Asia through strong states on China's
periphery constituted ``a critical US security interest'' given China's
increasing power.
Japan and India, who are both vying for permanent seats in the UN Security
Council, will hedge against growing Chinese capabilities, he said, and
``supporting them in this regard makes sense because it coheres with the global
objectives of the United States.''
Raghuram Rajan, head of research at the International Monetary Fund, said
India's emergence as a global power would depend on its capability of creating
jobs for its youth - a quarter of the population is below the age of 25 - and
overcoming weak infrastructure and growing disparities.AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
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