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REUTERS
Early last summer, United States Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld approved a
top secret "Interim Global Strike Alert Order'' directing the military to
assume and maintain readiness to attack hostile countries that are developing
weapons of mass destruction, specifically Iran and North Korea.
Two months later, Lieutenant-General Bruce Carlson, commander of the 8th Air
Force, told a reporter that his fleet of B-2 and B-52 bombers had changed its
way of operating so that it could be ready to carry out such missions. "We're
now at the point where we are essentially on alert,'' Carlson said in an
interview with the Shreveport Times.
"We have the capacity to plan and execute global strikes.''
Carlson said his forces were the US Strategic Command's "focal point for global
strike'' and could execute an attack "in half a day or less.''
In the secret world of military planning, global strike has become the term to
describe a specific pre-emptive attack. When military officials refer to global
strike, they stress its conventional elements. Surprisingly, however, global
strike also includes a nuclear option, which runs counter to traditional US
notions about the defensive role of nuclear weapons.
The official US position on the use of nuclear weapons has not changed. Since
the end of the Cold War, the United States has taken steps to de-emphasize the
importance of its nuclear arsenal.
The Bush administration has said it remains committed to reducing its nuclear
stockpile while keeping a credible deterrent against other nuclear powers.
Administration and military officials have stressed this continuity in
testimony over the past several years before various congressional committees.
But a confluence of events, beginning with the September 11, 2001, attacks and
the president's forthright commitment to the idea of pre-emptive action to
prevent future attacks, has set in motion a process that has led to a
fundamental change in how the US military might respond to certain possible
threats.
Understanding how Washington got to this point, and what it might mean for US
policy, is particularly important now - with the renewed focus last week on
Iran's nuclear intentions and on speculation that North Korea is ready to
conduct its first test of a nuclear weapon.
Global strike has become one of the core missions for the Omaha-based Strategic
Command, or Stratcom.
Once, Stratcom oversaw only the nation's nuclear forces; now it has
responsibility for overseeing a global strike plan with both conventional and
nuclear options.
President George W Bush spelled out the definition of a "full-spectrum'' global
strike in a January 2003 classified directive, describing it as "a capability
to deliver rapid, extended range, precision kinetic (nuclear and conventional)
and non-kinetic effects in support of theater and national objectives.''
This blurring of the nuclear/conventional line, wittingly or unwittingly, could
heighten the risk that the nuclear option will be used.
Exhibit A may be the Stratcom contingency plan for dealing with "imminent''
threats from countries such as North Korea or Iran, formally known as Conplan
8022-02.
Conplan 8022 is different from other war plans in that it posits a small-scale
operation and no "boots on the ground.''
The typical war plan encompasses an amalgam of forces - air, ground, sea - and
takes into account the logistics and political dimensions needed to sustain
those forces in protracted operations. All these elements generally require
significant lead time to be effective.
Existing Pentagon war plans, developed for specific regions or "theaters,'' are
essentially defensive responses to invasions or attacks. The global strike plan
is offensive, triggered by the perception of an imminent threat and carried out
by presidential order.
Conplan 8022 anticipates two sce-narios. The first is a response to a specific
and imminent nuclear threat, say in North Korea.
A quick-reaction, highly choreographed strike would combine pinpoint bombing
with electronic warfare and cyberattacks to disable a North Korean response,
with commandos operating deep in enemy territory, perhaps even to take
possession of the nuclear device.
The second scenario involves a more generic attack on an adversary's
weapons-of-mass-destruction infrastructure.
Assume, for argument's sake, that Iran announces it is mounting a crash program
to build a nuclear weapon. A multidimensional bombing (kinetic) and
cyberwarfare (non-kinetic) attack might seek to destroy Iran's program, and
special forces would be deployed to disable or isolate underground facilities.
By employing all of the tricks in the US arsenal to immobilize an enemy country
- turning off the electricity, jamming and spoofing radars and communications,
penetrating computer networks and garbling electronic commands - global strike
magnifies the impact of bombing by eliminating the need to physically destroy
targets that have been disabled by other means.
The inclusion, therefore, of a nuclear weapons option in Conplan 8022 - a
specially configured earth-penetrating bomb to destroy deeply buried
facilities, if any exist - is particularly disconcerting.
The global strike plan holds the nuclear option in reserve if intelligence
suggests an "imminent'' launch of an enemy nuclear strike on the United States
or if there is a need to destroy hard-to-reach targets.
It is difficult to imagine a US president ordering a nuclear attack on Iran or
North Korea under any circumstance. Yet as global strike contingency planning
has moved forward, so has the nuclear option.
Global strike finds its origins in pre-Bush administration Air Force thinking
about a way to harness American precision and stealth to "kick down the door''
of defended territory, making it easier for (perhaps even avoiding the need
for) follow-on ground operations.
The events of 9/11 shifted the focus of planning. There was no war plan for
Afghanistan on the shelf, not even a generic one.
In Afghanistan, the synergy of conventional bombing and special operations
surprised everyone. But most importantly, weapons of mass destruction became
the US government focus.
It is not surprising, then, that barely three months after that earth-shattering
event, the Pentagon's quadrennial Nuclear Posture Review assigned the military
and Stratcom the task of providing greater flexibility in nuclear attack
options against Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya, Syria and China.
The Air Force's global strike concept was taken over by Stratcom and made into
something new.
This was partly in response to the realization that the military had no plans
for certain situations. The possibility that some nations would acquire the
ability to attack the US directly with a WMD, for example, had clearly fallen
between the command structure's cracks.
For example, the Pacific Command in Hawaii had many war plans on its shelf to
respond to a North Korean attack on South Korea, including some with nuclear
options.
But if North Korea attacked the United States directly or, more to the point, if
the US intelligence network detected evidence of preparations for such an
attack, Pacific Command didn't have a war plan in place.
In May 2002, Rumsfeld issued an updated Defense Planning Guidance that directed
the military to develop an ability to undertake "unwarned strikes ... [to]
swiftly defeat from a position of forward deterrence.''
The post-9/11 National Security Strategy, published in September 2002, codified
pre-emption, stating that the United States must be prepared to stop "rogue
states and their terrorist clients before they are able to threaten or use
weapons of mass destruction against the United States and our allies.''
"We cannot let our enemies strike first,'' Bush declared in the National
Security Strategy document.
Stratcom established an interim global strike division to turn the new
preemption policy into an operational reality.
In December 2002, Admiral James Ellis Jr, then Stratcom's head, told an Omaha
business group that his command had been charged with developing the capability
to strike anywhere in the world within minutes of detecting a target. Ellis
posed the following question to his audience: "If you can find that
time-critical, key terrorist target or that weapons-of-mass-destruction
stockpile, and you have minutes rather than hours or days to deal with it, how
do you reach out and negate that threat to our nation half a world away?''
Conplan 8022-02 was completed in November 2003, putting in place for the first
time a pre-emptive and offensive strike capability against Iran and North
Korea.
In January 2004, Ellis certified Stratcom's readiness for global strike to the
defense secretary and the president.
At Ellis' retirement ceremony in July, General Richard Myers, chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, told an Omaha audience that "the president charged you
to `be ready to strike at any moment's notice in any dark corner of the world'
[and] that's exactly what you've done.''
As US military forces have become bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, the
attractiveness of global strike planning has increased in the minds of many in
the military. Stratcom planners, recognizing that US ground forces are already
overcommitted, say that global strike must be able to be implemented "without
resort to large numbers of general purpose forces.''
When one combines the doctrine of pre-emption with a "homeland security'' ethic
that concludes that only hyper-vigilance and readiness stand in the way of
another 9/11, it is pretty clear how global strike ended up where it is.
The 9/11 attacks caught the country unaware and the natural reaction of
contingency planners is to try to eliminate surprise in the future. The Nuclear
Posture Review and Rumsfeld's classified Defense Planning Guidance both
demanded more flexible nuclear options.
Global strike thinkers may believe they have found a way to keep the nuclear
genie in the bottle but they are also having to cater to a belief on the part
of those in government's inner circle who have convinced themselves that the
gravity of the threats demands that the United States does not engage in any
protracted debate, that it prepares for the worst and hopes for the best.
Though the official Washington mantra has always been "we don't discuss war
plans,'' here is a real life predicament that cries out for debate: In classic
terms, military strength and contingency planning can dissuade an attacker from
mounting hostile actions by either threatening punishment or demonstrating
through preparedness that an attacker's objectives could not possibly be
achieved.
The existence of a nuclear capability, and a secure retaliatory force, moreover,
could help to deter an attack - that is, if the threat is credible in the mind
of the adversary.
But the global strike contingency plan cannot be a credible threat if it is not
publicly known. And though Conplan 8022 suggests a clean, short-duration strike
intended to protect American security, a pre-emptive surprise attack (let alone
one involving a nuclear weapon option) would unleash a multitude of additional
and unanticipated consequences. So, on both counts, why aren't we talking about
it?
THE WASHINGTON POSTWilliam Arkin, who writes frequently about military
affairs, is the author of Code Names: Deciphering US Military Plans, Programs
and Operations in the 9/11 World (Steerforth).
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