In the last month, a series of confrontations have occurred between Japan and South Korea that are threatening Tokyo's interests. These events include Japan's expressed interest in attaining sovereignty over disputed islets, its whitewashing of the historical record involving its militant past, and past visits by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to Yasukuni shrine.

Japan's increase in its military projection capabilities has also contributed to South Korea's sense of concern.

These confrontations, in addition to the military buildup, can be attributed to Japan's growing nationalism. As the memory of World War II fades, its society is becoming more nationalistic, resulting in Tokyo pushing for an increased military role in the world. Tokyo's nationalistic actions have concerned many of its allies in East Asia, most notably South Korea.

One of the important reasons behind Japan's military buildup involves China's strengthening position. As Beijing grows in power and modernizes its military, Tokyo understands this will weaken its own position in East Asia.

The catalyst to the present souring of relations occurred last month, when Japan's Shimane prefecture approved a provincial bill that established ``Takeshima Day.''

Takeshima is Japan's term for a chain of islets that are contested by Seoul and Tokyo; in Korea, they are called Dokdo, or Tokdo. In 1905, they were declared by Shimane to be part of its territory; nevertheless, they have been controlled by South Korea for 50 years. While uninhabited, they are surrounded by rich fishing grounds.

The prefecture's decision to declare ``Takeshima Day'' sparked angry protests in South Korea. A February 23 statement by Takano Toshiyuki, Japan's ambassador in Seoul, declaring that Tokyo retains sovereignty over the islets did not help the matter.

Furthermore, the decision follows a series of other actions by Japan that has concerned its neighbors.

For instance, Japan's history books distort its wartime history and refuse to provide an accurate account of the country's expansionist and militant past. Additionally, the country's top political leaders, including Koizumi, continue to visit the Yasukuni shrine. The shrine, which honors approximately 2.5 million Japanese who died in wars between 1853 and 1945, also honors more than 1,000 WWII, including 14 Class A, war criminals.

Tokyo's nationalist actions prompted South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun to warn on March 23, ``Now, the South Korean government has no choice but to sternly deal with Japan's attempt to justify its history of aggression and colonialism and revive regional hegemony.''

Since December 2003, the two countries had been working on a free-trade agreement. While the talks were derailed due to disagreement over how far Tokyo should go to reduce and remove import tariffs on agricultural products, the Takeshima Day declaration escalated the matter further.

``We are considering starting the [free-trade] talks when the political situation calms down,'' Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura said.

The increasing strength of the Japanese military has also prompted concern in East Asia.

Japan, due to its expansionist and militant actions before and during WWII, was barred from rebuilding its military in any significant manner. Article 9 of its constitution states that ``land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained.'' As the memory of WWII fades further into history, both Japan and its strongest ally, the United States, have come to agree that Article 9 may be impractical and that it should become a ``normal'' country again.

Indeed, Japan's International Peace Cooperation Law, enacted in 1992, permits it to send troops to participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations. The US intervention in Iraq, for example, is utilizing Japan's Self Defense Forces.

It appears that Tokyo is slowly working toward the amendment of Article 9 by strengthening and increasing the status of the Japanese military.

For instance, last December, it released a 10-year defense program that openly labels China as a potential threat to Japanese interests.

Tokyo has spoken out against the European Union resuming the arms trade with China, has joined the United States in calling the Taiwan Strait a ``common strategic concern,'' has agreed to a missile defense program that could possibly be used one day to weaken China's military might, and has warned that Japan will use its Coast Guard to take control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands - which were formally claimed by Japan in 1895, but are claimed by the mainland and Taiwan as well.

Thus far, Japan's nationalism has had the most tangible effect on South Korea. The deteriorating relations are an unsettling development for Tokyo.

Japan's island status, its wartime history and its firm relations with the United States have kept it isolated from its Asian neighbors. Since the fall of the Japanese empire at the conclusion of WWII, the United States has utilized Japan as its bridgehead to East Asia.

Washington garrisons its military forces in Japan, and has involved itself in Asian conflicts and affairs in order to keep Japan from falling out of the US sphere of influence and into a Chinese one. The loss of Japan would count as a major setback for US influence in Asia and for US interests as a whole.

Because of these factors, Japan has found itself politically isolated in East Asia. Its relations with the United States and Australia presently secure its influential position; however, it now faces the growth of China, which is rapidly modernizing its economy and military.

China's 1.3 billion population dwarfs Japan's 128 million. China had a trade volume last year of US$1.2 trillion (HK$9.36 trillion), third in the world behind the United States and Germany. The US Central Intelligence Agency predicts that, according to Beijing's current progression, China's GDP will equal Great Britain's this year, Germany's in 2009, Japan's in 2017, and that of the United States in 2042.

Its size means that if China is able to continue its stable growth as a power, it should supplant Japan's influence in East Asia and force Tokyo to recognize a debilitating shift in the balance of power.

For the United States, it will mean that Japan will be forced to accommodate with China, thus diminishing US influence in East Asia and marking a failure for the Bush administration's current national security strategy that argues that, in order to contain China, the United States ``must build and maintain our defenses beyond challenge.''

Plus, there is no guarantee that the United States will remain completely committed to Japan's defense.

The difficulty that US forces have encountered in eliminating the insurgency in Iraq has made it clear that interventions are costly and need to be avoided when possible.

While it is still assumed that the United States will come to Japan's aid in case of a conflict, there is no guarantee that this will be the case a decade or two in the future. This explains why Japan has been increasing the strength of its military and reviving nationalist sentiment necessary to move toward this end.

These power realities mean that Japan must make every effort to establish good relations with other influential Asian states; in conjunction with these states, Tokyo will be able to increase its regional power and potentially be able to limit China's growing regional influence.

South Korea is one of these influential states, and it also shares good relations with the United States and houses US troops dating back to the 1950-1953 Korean War.

The difficulty for Japan is that its growing nationalism - necessary for the boosting of its military potential - infuriates South Koreans, who remember Japan's wartime atrocities on the peninsula before and during WWII.

Tokyo must be wary of inflaming the region. Already, South Korean politicians are creating an alliance that aims to combat increased Japanese influence in the region and the globe.

The alliance, which is dubbed the Lawmakers' Conference for Peace in Asia, plans to prevent Japan from acquiring a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council; it will work to do this by building alliances with organizations in other Asian states that are also concerned about Japan's growing power.

The group has apparently made inroads with Beijing.

The first meeting of the alliance is scheduled for August. In the words of Kang Chang-il of the Uri Party who is part of the conference, ``We are concerned that a recent series of provocative acts from Japan might be a prelude to the revival of militarism.''

If Japan degrades its relationship with South Korea, it risks Seoul improving its relations with Beijing at the expense of Tokyo and Washington.

Seoul is facing a population growing more distant from the United States and is seeking to pursue a more independent foreign policy in Asia. Seoul and Beijing are improving their relations.

Since Seoul still relies on US military support, it would be an avoidable setback for Japan to alienate South Korea enough for it to move further away from the Japan-US orbit toward a a Chinese one.

While China's rise induces Japan to increase the strength of its military, it must do so with the acceptance of East Asia's influential states, most notably South Korea; failure to earn their acceptance may leave Japan increasingly isolated in East Asia with few foreign policy options at its disposal.

Erich Marquardt is a senior analyst with the Power and Interest News Report. Reprinted with permission of the Power and Interest News Report at: www.pinr.com