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The astounding tragedy in the Indian Ocean is not
just a human disaster of unbearable magnitude. Nor is it a matter of fate. It
is the consequence of years of underinvestment in the scientific and technical
infrastructure needed to reduce the vulnerability of developing countries to
natural and environmental calamity.
Disasters such as this one mobilise relief organisations, and the developed
countries offer assistance, compassion and determination in rescue, recovery
and reconstruction. But the effect of major disasters extends well beyond the
immediate lives lost and buildings damaged.
In the aftermath, millions of people will face ongoing problems of lost
households, lost livelihoods and well-being, and the ruination of fragile
community and social structures. Millions are at risk from disease and
starvation.
Such realities mean that years, if not decades, of support will be needed for
recovery. And the Earth doesn't stop turning after one disaster. The region of
the Indian Ocean hit by the tsunami is afflicted by typhoons year after year.
Some of its resiliency to merely large storms has been washed away.
Those of us who study disasters and their management wonder to what extent the
scale of this tragedy would have been lessened had the technologies and
scientific capabilities of the developed world been trained on the Indian Ocean
and South Asia.
Disasters affect poor and developing countries disproportionately. The poor's
struggle for daily survival does not allow for disaster preparedness.
Persistent environmental stress, such as recurring natural disasters, diverts
long-term investment in sustainable development. Little is left for the sorts
of investments that make for livable societies. When this happens repeatedly,
no matter the disaster, countries can get trapped in a reactive rather than
proactive development trajectory.
What will motivate the developed world to reduce the effect of disasters before
they happen? Should it not be axiomatic that there is a human right to
knowledge and technology that can benefit all?
The Sumatra earthquake was no surprise, geologically speaking. And global
networks of seismometers operated by the developed world were able to locate
the earthquake and quickly characterise its potential to unleash a tsunami, all
within a fraction of the time it took for the wave to cross the Bay of Bengal.
Agonisingly, despite years of discussions, the relatively inexpensive water
level sensors needed to sense and track a tsunami were not in place. Neither
was there in place a comprehensive response infrastructure able to use
available warnings.
There are no technical barriers to developing a tsunami warning system for the
Indian Ocean region. An effective system has been in place in the Pacific for
about 40 years. And the civil defence mechanisms in place to evacuate affected
areas in the paths of typhoons could have been beefed up to respond more
quickly and specifically in the event of a tsunami.
From hurricanes in the Caribbean to earthquakes in Southeast Asia to landslides
in the Andes to drought in Africa, we know enough about natural disaster
occurrence to identify vulnerable regions.
Work by both the United Nations Development Programme and the World Bank's
Hazard Management Unit, in which we participated, has quantified the exposures
of people and their economies to multiple natural hazards. For the most part,
we also know where the potential for devastation is greatest.
Globally, the costs of taking pre-emptive action are less than what is spent on
recovery. The value of saving lives is immeasurable in terms of dollars, of
course. In addition, the potential to reduce the ongoing loss of livelihood and
well-being has a direct relation to the costs of sustainable development.
Pre-emptive investments can build strong and long-lasting infrastructure. That
means water and sanitation systems, transport and telecommunications networks
and health-care delivery systems. These all are important when it comes to
disaster mitigation and response, but they contribute to basic development and
living standards as well. Only a fraction of disaster recovery funds gets spent
on future mitigation.
The lessons are clear, and the next steps are obvious.
Map the known exposures of human populations and economic activities to
multiple disasters.
Encourage pilot programmes in the most risk-prone areas to demonstrate the
practicality of available technology.
Build indigenous scientific and technical capacity to take advantage of
existing technology and allow for local innovation.
Link developed-world foreign aid to risk-conscious sustainable development.
Encourage ongoing assessment of disaster risk-management methods.
Pay for it with development finance mechanisms that provide incentives for
pre-emptive investment in vulnerability reduction.
One measure of a tragedy is how easily it could be avoided. We can begin to
reduce the disconnect between what we know and what we do by making relatively
small investments, which seem more a matter of human rights than a matter of
first-world largess. Scientists find it increasingly urgent to couple learning
about our planet and its hazards with directing this knowledge to where it is
most needed, particularly to poor communities around the globe.
The developed world - including countries like the United States that
chronically underfund the use of existing science and technology by the poor -
should lead this pre-emptive war against environmental stress and disaster
vulnerability. It is long overdue.
LOS ANGELES TIMES
Arthur Lerner-Lam and Leonardo Seeber are seismologists with the
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Robert Chen is a geographer with the Centre
for International Earth Science Information Network. All are scientists with
the Earth Institute at Columbia University
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