Unlike countries such as Thailand or Vietnam, Hong Kong does not have many free-range chicken farms, he said, and therefore avian flu is unlikely to start here.

``That said, it doesn't stop us from being transporters and distributors of the disease,'' Tsang added.

Tsang is one of five doctors whose work on H5N1 Influenza Pandemic Contingency plans was published in the British medical journal, The Lancet.

On Friday, he spoke about how Hong Kong and Asia can minimize the damage caused by an avian flu outbreak.

The H5N1 strain of avian flu was first passed from chickens to humans in Hong Kong in 1997. The outbreak was limited to the territory and killed six of the infected 18 people and all chickens in the city were slaughtered.

Tsang suggested ways to improve H5N1 influenza pandemic contingency plans and minimalize fatalities.

There is no record of human-to-human avian flu transmission, but Tsang said the H5N1 could easily mutate into a highly infectious virus by combining with other influenza strains.

``Should there be a major flu pandemic, many people will perish,'' he said. ``Perhaps even millions worldwide in a worst-case scenario.'' Tsang's focused on anti-influenza drugs.

There are stockpiles of millions of oseltamirvir doses. But because the drug has not proven to be a reliable cure for the flu, Tsang said the WHO and governments should also consider the similar anti-influenza drug, zanamivir.

Zanamivir is slightly cheaper and research shows it has fewer side effects.

andrea.chiu@singtaonewscorp.com