Taiwan expert Camoes Tam poured cold water on the visit by Kuomintang (KMT) vice chairman Chiang Pin-kung who is leading a delegation to the mainland - the party's first since it was defeated in the civil war by the Communist Party in 1949.

Chiang said the visit is aimed at easing cross-strait tensions after the mainland authorities flexed their political muscles by introducing the anti-secession law which allows for the island to be reclaimed by force should the Taiwanese government opt for formal independence.

Taiwan's anger over the law reached boiling point in Taipei last Saturday when at least 300,000 protestors, including President Chen Shui-bian, rallied against the legislation.

Many critics said the passage of the law and the huge march signaled a turn for the worse in relations between Beijing and Taipei.

In the light of this, Tam said the historic visit by the KMT will cause a negative impact on its popularity.

``The introduction of the anti-secession law is like holding you at gunpoint and forcing you to marry someone you don't like. If you don't agree with the marriage, you will get shot. You can expect how Taiwanese people feel,'' he said.

``Then when Taiwanese people's anti-China sentiment reaches new heights, the KMT dares to go to China and shake its hands? The KMT is telling their people that it is a traitor betraying them.

``What good does it do the party? This is political suicide.''

According to Tam, the law, aimed at preventing Taiwan breaking away from China, is not a bad thing because it will not force reunification on Taiwan, but only sets out the mainland's position on keeping the cross-strait status quo.

The law passed this month authorizes the use of force against Taiwan as a last resort if it moves toward formal independence.

However, he said Taiwanese people right now were too emotional to have a rational perspective on the issue. Tam added the KMT is also not in a position to ease cross-strait tensions by fostering good ties with China because it is not the ruling party.

He argued if the KMT shifts the focus of discussions to economic issues such as the opening of direct transport links and better protection of Taiwanese businessmen in China, it will only strengthen the perception that it is being traitorous.

``This is the wrong thing [to do] at the wrong time. The KMT should wait for two or three more weeks before making the move,'' he said.

However, Ong Yew-kim, a scholar for the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Chinese University, is upbeat about the trip.

He said it will provide a good opportunity for the KMT to cultivate friendly ties with Beijing because the visit is a prelude to a mainland visit by its leader Lien Chan.

Ong believed the KMT can broaden its support base through the visit because Taiwanese people favor the cross-strait status quo and do not support independence.

``The visit can serve to ease the lingering cross-strait tensions. This will help the KMT establish good relations with Beijing, as well as garner public support,'' he said.

He believed the KMT's move towards friendlier relations with Beijing will not provoke a backlash from its rival, Chen's Democratic Progressive Party, because Chen ``knew which way the wind of public opinion was blowing.''

cannix.yau@singtaonewscorp.com