Traders decrease yuan bets


Yumi Kuramitsu


July 28, 2005

Traders decreased their bets the yuan will appreciate after the central bank said it will not revalue the currency again in the ''foreseeable future,'' dismissing speculation its move last week is a first step.

``After the comment, traders don't think China will come up with another one-time change in the near term,'' said Steven Chang, vice-president of global markets at State Street Bank & Trust, in Hong Kong. ``Because of [Tuesday's] comments, some banks may be advising clients to buy dollars, while people who had already bought the yuan sold the currency to take profit.''

The yuan would rise to 7.755 against the dollar in a year if freely traded, a gain of 4.4 percent, according to last-afternoon forward contracts. The so-called implied rate was 7.745 in Asia. The yuan may fall to around 7.78 in two weeks, Chang said.

The central bank maintains a 0.3 percent limit within which the yuan is allowed to fluctuate. The yuan was fixed at 8.1128 versus the US dollar on the Shanghai-based China Foreign Exchange Trading System, compared with 8.1099 Tuesday. China revalued the yuan to 8.11 last Thursday, from the previous decade-old peg of 8.30.

``The notion that the 2 percent revaluation is only an initial adjustment and that the central bank will further adjust the rate in the foreseeable future is wrong,'' the People's Bank of China said Tuesday.

China had been under pressure to allow its currency to strengthen by countries such as the United States and Japan, which said the peg held down the yuan's value, providing an unfair advantage to the mainland's exporters.

BLOOMBERG


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