Xie, a former economist at the World Bank, blamed hedge-fund managers and other large speculators for driving crude futures to an all-time high this year in London and New York. Speculators have bought oil futures on the perception of rising demand in Asia and concern about supply disruptions in producers such as Iran and Russia, he said.

``I have never seen people buying something on what I believe is so much misinformation,'' Xie said in a report. ``As the weak economic and oil demand data pour in from Asia, some speculators could run, which could, in my view, trigger a stampede.''

Oil futures rose to US$62.10 (HK$484.38) a barrel July 7 in New York, partly because of surging consumption in China.

The nation's economy has tripled in a decade to US$1.6 trillion, leading to increased oil imports because domestic production failed to meet demand that more than doubled in 10 years. The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 countries, in a report Thursday cut its projection for demand growth this year to 1.9 percent because of slowing economies in the United States and China.

China's annual oil demand growth may slow this year to 5.5 percent, it said. China's crude imports in the first half rose 3.9 percent, or a 10th of the pace last year, because refiners increased purchases at a slower pace after prices rose.

Crude oil is up 37 percent in New York so far this year after gaining 34 percent in 2004 and 4.2 percent in 2003.

``At some point, the oil market will abandon the fiction of endless Asian or Chinese demand,'' said Xie, 44. ``As we have learned from past bubbles, when the expectation turns, oil prices are likely to collapse.''

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net long position in New York crude oil futures in the week to July 5, according to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data last Friday.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 32,758 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net long positions rose by 10,750 contracts, or 49 percent, from a week earlier. Net long positions in New York rose to a record 88,712 contracts in the week to last Friday.

While the IEA revised its forecast for demand growth lower this year, it expects usage to rebound. It says demand may gain 2.1 percent next year, a sign that prices at US$60 a barrel have done little to restrain growth.

Consumption will increase by 1.75 million barrels a day, the Paris-based agency said in its first projection for next year. China's oil demand growth will rebound in 2006 by 7.2 percent after slowing this year, according to the IEA.

Goldman Sachs Group, Deutsche Bank and UBS are also predicting higher oil prices.

Goldman Sachs analysts led by Arjun Murti said at the end of March oil may climb to US$105 a barrel in the next several years as the market enters a ``super spike'' period, spurred by rising demand.

Analysts at Zurich-based UBS, in a note to clients Thursday, raised their forecasts for New York crude oil to US$52 a barrel in 2005 from US$45.20.

Oil prices may reach US$100 a barrel, Tom Walker, a fund manager at Martin Currie Investment Management, said Wednesday.

``It's not beyond the realm of imagination to see the oil price rise significantly from here,'' said Edinburgh-based Walker, who oversees US and global stocks, including BP. ``There's no viable alternative and demand is still increasing.''

But Xie is sticking to his guns.

``Oil bubbles do not last because they depress economies and, hence, demand,'' he said. ``The days for the oil bubble are numbered.''