Hong Kong's annual July 1 day of protest and celebration will see competing groups massing to make a point this year with a wide spectrum of pro-Beijing organizations planning a large parade early Friday afternoon, hours before the pro-democracy protest gets under way.

Friday will mark the eighth anniversary of Hong Kong's reunification with China - an occasion marked by two consecutive half-million strong pro-democracy rallies in 2003 and 2004 that have become a symbol of the day.

But this year, some political analysts predict the pro-Beijing camp may finally get the upper hand by enticing more people to join their parade than that of the pro-democracy camp.

Meanwhile, democracy organizers say police have imposed 18 new conditions on their rally, some of which appear difficult to comply with. The pro-mainland crowd claims that more than 20,000 people, from some 800 pro-Beijing groups, will take part in what they call the ''greatest show ever''complete with cultural performances and a ''face changing'' opera troupe flown in from Sichuan.

According to City University political science professor Sung Lap-kung, the two marches will be a litmus test on whether Hong Kong residents are more keen on protest or celebration.

Parade organizers have sent invitations to Chief Executive Donald Tsang and central government Liaison Office director Gao Siren to a ceremony ahead of the parade, but it is not known if they will attend.

''It is not going to be a protest. It is going to be a happy event,'' said veteran pro-Beijing leader Cheng Yiu-tong Tuesday.

``Hong Kong has survived ordeals like the financial turmoil and SARS. I think it is a good time to celebrate because the economy has improved and people are now happier,'' he said.

The five-hour love-fest for China will begin with a flag-raising ceremony at Hong Kong Stadium followed by a parade from the stadium to Wan Chai via Causeway Bay.

Traffic will be diverted from the roads to be used by marchers, according to organizer Chung Yam-cheung.

Some 100 arts groups from Hong Kong and the mainland will perform along the way, including several groups from a Shenzhen amusement park and the Sichuan opera group.

When asked whether the event will create tension with the pro-democracy camp, Cheng said the two groups will respect one another, adding that this is the ``true meaning of democracy.''

Pro-democracy organizers said they are more worried about new conditions imposed on participants.

The police have issued a ``no objection to protest''document, but with 44 conditions.

One condition is that protesters should walk on pavements, footbridges and pedestrian crossings. The police also require organizers to ensure that no protester voices ``threatening slogans,'' such as those that carry a ``particular target.''

``If hordes of people are already walking on the road, it will be impossible for marshals to call them back to the pavement,'' Tam Chun-yin, spokesperson for the Civil Human Rights Front, organizer of the pro-democracy protest, said Tuesday.

``In previous protests, some protesters chanted anti-Tung slogans. Do these meet the police's description of `threatening slogans' that `carry a particular target?''' Tam asked.

Organizers are to meet police before the protest to discuss the conditions again, but Tam said the protest march would proceed regardless.

``Obviously they [the pro-Beijing camp] want to do it before the Civil Human Rights Front to create a contrast,'' political analyst Sung said, adding the leftist group is attempting to dilute negative sentiment that has marked July1 in recent years.

``It will be a [litmus] test of public sentiment and there will be keen competition,'' he said.

He estimated the turnout for the pro-democracy group at less than 30,000.

If the pro-Beijing turnout exceeds that figure, it would be seen as a victory for that group, Sung said.

Tam admitted that the turnout this year will be lower than previous rallies but it will be about 50,000.

``Hong Kong is a free society and people have a right to choose. We simply provide a platform for them to voice their demands,'' Tam said.

Article 45 Concern Group's Alan Leong, who during a press conference held in the Legislative Council Tuesday called on people to join the protest, said: ``One cannot put an equal sign between the number which turns out and the desire for hastening the pace of democracy. Some people will not turn up simply because they wish to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.''

This year's protest has two themes: ``Achieving universal suffrage in 07-08;'' and ``Against the government colluding with the business sector.''

People will also have a chance to cast their ballots in a mock referendum on universal suffrage on the grass lawn of Victoria Park before the start of the march, which begins at 3pm. dennis.chong@singtaonewscorp.com

stephanie.yeung@singtaonewscorp.com