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Richard Li's PCCW has mapped out a return to the mobile phone business that it
abandoned in 2002 during the worst of its financial crisis, offering HK$1.94
billion to buy Sunday Communications, Hong Kong's smallest mobile operator.
Analysts cautioned, though, that PCCW may face heavy capital commitments to help
Sunday roll out its third-generation (3G) mobile service, and this could
accelerate the decline of its fixed-line business, where it is the market
leader.
PCCW's offer of HK$0.65 per Sunday share is a 22.6 percent premium to its last
closing price of HK$0.53 on Friday. Both Distacom Communications, Sunday's
largest shareholder at 46.1 percent, and USI Holdings, the second largest at
13.7 percent, have agreed to the offer.
PCCW and Sunday shares were suspended from trading Monday.
People who bought Sunday shares at the initial public offering price of HK$3.78
in 2000 at the height of the technology boom stand to lose 83 percent on the
takeover by PCCW.
Three years ago, PCCW completed a strategic withdrawal from the mobile phone
business by selling the remaining 40 percent of CSL - the most profitable of
Hong Kong's mobile operators on an average revenue per user basis - to
Australia's Telstra. In all, CSL cost Telstra US$2.29 billion.
``Though the CSL sale strengthened PCCW's balance sheets, from an
operational point of view, it was probably a mistake,'' a US investment bank
analyst said.
``Having its own mobile business would have provided PCCW with a hedge against
the loss of fixed-line user traffic to mobile,'' the analyst said.
Francis Cheung, head of telecoms research at CLSA, said he was surprised to see
PCCW buy the smallest 3G player in the market, and he predicted that turning
Sunday around would put further strain on PCCW's core fixed-line business.
PCCW founder, chairman and largest shareholder Li allowed that transforming
Sunday's business would take four to five years. ``We hope to turn this
[Sunday] network, which has a small-spending customer base, into something like
CSL. CSL has the highest ARPU [average revenue per user] in Hong Kong,'' Li
told RTHK radio Monday.
PCCW's share of the fixed-line voice market in Hong Kong declined to 67 percent
at the end of last year from 69 percent a year earlier, and revenues from
telephony services fell 12 percent to HK$5.3 billion. However, sales of homes
in its Cyberport luxury development helped it return to a net profit of HK$1.63
billion in 2004, following a loss of HK$6.1 billion in 2003.
As for Sunday, the costs of rolling out its 3G network dragged it to a HK$13
million net loss in the second half last year.
Also last year Sunday signed a loan agreement with Huawei Technologies,
committing the mainland telecoms equipment giant to supply it with 3G network
equipment worth HK$1.2 billion. The loan must be be repaid in eight
installments starting in June 2008.
Huawei owns 8.1 percent of Sunday.
``Sunday's business will benefit from more financial muscle, and through the
deal the business will have access to not only PCCW's finance, but also its
infrastructure,'' another analyst said.
The move could trigger more consolidation in the mobile industry. ``The market
had three strong 3G players, and now it has four, so the pressure will be on
the non-3G operators, namely Peoples and New World Mobility,'' the analyst
said.
``The success of this deal will depend on PCCW's ability to offer bundled fixed
and mobile services to customers,'' said Andrew Chetham, principal analyst at
industry research firm Gartner. ``However, Hutchison has run both fixed and
mobile services in Hong Kong for years and this did not appear to have
benefited them.''
The Sunday deal could mark an important shift in PCCW's technological strategy.
``PCCW previously indicated it would be developing its mobile business through
broadband wireless access technologies such as Wi-Max, and not on cellular
technologies such as 3G,'' said a European investment bank analyst. ``The move
[to acquire Sunday] was therefore a surprise.''
PCCW has so far invested about US$50 million in its wireless broadband business
in Britain, and said it was awaiting the outcome of a consultation exercise on
mobile licensing by the Office of Telecommunications Authority in Hong Kong
before launching similar services locally.
mark.lee@singtaonewscorp.com
kc.wong@singtaonewscorp.com
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