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Whenever a car bombing, beheading or other spectacular act of violence takes
place in Iraq these days, American officials are quick to blame Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi. If he hasn't already taken responsibility himself.
But according to an Arab intelligence assessment, al-Zarqawi is not capable of
carrying out the level of attacks in Iraq that he has claimed and that American
officials have blamed on him.
Al-Zarqawi's own militant group has fewer than 100 members inside Iraq, although
al-Zarqawi has close ties to a Kurdish Islamist group with at least several
hundred members, according to two reports produced by an Arab intelligence
service.
Kurdish group Ansar al-Islam has provided dozens of recruits for suicide
bombings since the United States-led invasion of Iraq, the reports say. And
while US forces relentlessly pound the Sunni insurgent strongholds of Fallujah
and Samarra, claiming to hit al-Zarqawi safe houses, the elusive militant could
be hiding in the northern city of Mosul.
The Jordanian-born al-Zarqawi, 37, has used the media effectively to inflate his
role in the Iraqi insurgency. In recent months, he and his supporters have
claimed responsibility for scores of suicide bombings, attacks on US and Iraqi
forces, kidnappings and beheadings of foreigners, and coordinated uprisings in
several Iraqi cities.
Al-Zarqawi is thought likely responsible for the beheadings of American
contractor Nicholas Berg and several other foreigners. But the sheer level of
other attacks that he has claimed is not consistent with the number of
supporters he has inside Iraq and his ability to move around the country,
according to the analysis. The reports say former members of Saddam Hussein's
Baathist regime are responsible - directly or by paying others - for many of
the attacks, especially sophisticated roadside bombings and ambushes of US
troops.
The assessment contradicts many of the Bush administration's statements about
al-Zarqawi and his terrorist network.
Before invading Iraq in March 2003, the administration argued that al-Zarqawi
was a top lieutenant of Osama bin Laden. American officials said al-Zarqawi had
taken refuge in Baghdad and was a major link between Saddam's regime and the
al-Qaeda network.
But that assertion has never been proven, and there are doubts about
al-Zarqawi's relationships with both bin Laden and Saddam's government - as
some Bush administration officials have acknowledged in recent months. In July,
US officials raised the reward for information leading to al-Zarqawi's arrest
or killing to US$25 million (HK$195 million), which is equal to the bounty on
bin Laden's head.
US officials have erred in focusing so much attention since February on
al-Zarqawi as the main force behind the insurgency, according to the reports,
which were produced for the Arab country's political leadership. The analysis
has not been shared with US officials.
"The Americans are inclined to focus on one individual as the mastermind of all
the troubles,'' says one of the reports. "In reality, the situation in Iraq is
more complex. There are many small groups that sometimes work together, but at
other times they have different agendas ... There are former Saddam loyalists,
home-grown Islamic extremists, foreign extremists and Kurdish elements.''
Al-Zarqawi's ties to al-Qaeda are unclear, and he is thought more likely to be
an independent operator than a lieutenant of bin Laden's. That has been the
view of Arab and European intelligence officials for several years. Al-Zarqawi
is also likely to see his own group, Tawhid and Jihad (Arabic for "Unity and
Holy War''), as being in competition for recruits with al-Qaeda.
The Arab intelligence official said the reports are not intended to minimise the
danger posed by al-Zarqawi and other foreign militants operating in Iraq. "This
man, al-Zarqawi, is a very brutal and dangerous terrorist,'' the official said.
"But we do not believe that he is the architect of everything in Iraq. There
are many other players on the ground.''
The assessments are based on informants who send reports back from Iraq, the
intelligence service's own monitoring of developments inside the country and
interrogations of so-called "Arab volunteers'' who had entered Iraq ahead of
the US invasion to fight alongside Saddam's regime.
The reports underscore the US need for Arab intelligence cooperation.
To some analysts, the US focus on al-Zarqawi is part of a strategy to portray
the insurgency as something that is not homegrown but driven by
foreigners.
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