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Skype co-founder Niklas Zennstrom is turning the US$1 trillion telecoms
industry upside down. BLOOMBERG
Last September, Tom Online, the Beijing-based Internet company controlled by
Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, was ready to start a version of America
Online's ICQ instant messaging service. At the last minute, executive vice
president Elaine Feng agreed to meet Geoffrey Prentice, Skype Technologies'
director of new business.
The latest brainchild of Swede Niklas Zennstrom and Dane Janus Friis, founders
of file-sharing company Kazaa, millions were using Skype's software to talk for
free on personal computers. Feng loaded the program on her laptop computer and
forgot about it until the next day, when the computer rang.
Solina Chau, who holds a 24.5 percent stake in Tom Online, ''Skyped'' Feng,
calling to prod her to drop ICQ and add Skype instead. Feng agreed - becoming
another convert to a technology that's threatening to turn the US$1 trillion
(HK$7.8 trillion) global telecommunications industry upside down.
''Skype is like a meteor heading for Earth,'' says James Enck, a London-based
telecommunications analyst who wrote the first report on Skype in September
2003, a month after the software's introduction.
Since then, 80 percent of the 2,000 companies surveyed by New York-based
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, the world's second-biggest accounting firm, say
they're using, testing or planning to switch to Internet-based calls in two
years.
``The loss of voice revenue is happening much faster than many people expected,
and the big telcos have no choice but to respond,'' Enck says.
Zennstrom, 39, and Friis, 29, are veterans at staging technology incursions that
shatter the status quo. They have turned their Luxembourg-based company into a
global telephone service with 40 million customers, a feat that may change the
scrappy Scandinavian outsiders into Internet capitalists.
Developed by the same Estonian programmers who built Kazaa, a Napster-like
program that shook up the entertainment industry by letting people share music
and video files, Skype software has been downloaded more than 140 million
times, according to the company's Web site.
That's a pace second only to Kazaa's 390 million downloads. Skype is adding
130,000 registered users a day - in the process creating its own vocabulary, as
in ``Skype me'' - all without spending a cent on advertising.
Zennstrom declines to say whether Skype is profitable. ``I don't release any
financials unless I have to,''
he says.
Tony Kern, a Skype user who advises clients in the telecommunications industry
as deputy managing partner at Deloitte, says: ``There is definitely a cool
factor around Skype.''
Marc Vollenweider, co-founder and president of Bermuda-based research firm
Evalueserve, says his firm uses Skype for about 50,000 minutes of phone calls
each month, saving about US$60,000 a year.
When Skype increases security and flexibility, Vollenweider may switch another
800,000 minutes of voice calls to Skype for his more than 700 analysts in
Gurgaon, India, outside New Delhi.
``Once they come up with a business model, they'll see more revenue,'' says
Vollenweider, who outlined Skype's threat to the telephone industry in a
January research note. Among his conclusions: ``The cost of a basic phone call
will disappear.''
Like Kazaa, Skype relies on peer-to-peer technology, which taps the computing
power of participants' PCs around the world.
There are no costs for centralized servers, switches or other equipment. Calls
within the Skype network are free, and calls to regular telephones are cheap.
Zennstrom and Friis are betting that a telephone service, which avoids the
copyright issues that dogged Napster and Kazaa, will evolve as a less
controversial use of peer-to-peer technology.
They picked the name Skype, which has no real meaning, because it had a catchy
ring in any language. ``It just sounded cool,'' Friis says.
Skype gets revenue in two ways. The first, SkypeOut, lets users place calls to
regular phones for about 1.7 euro cents a minute. Callers buy prepaid calling
cards for 10 euros (HK$93.37), which provide about 600 minutes.
SkypeOut works with the London-based Colt Telecom Group, Broomfield,
Colorado-based Level 3 Communications and other companies to connect users to
the public switched telephone network, the international system that regular
fixed-line telephones use.
The second source of revenue, SkypeIn, provides users with a phone number so
they can receive calls from regular phones. A customer in London can get a San
Francisco number that lets friends and family in California call him or her at
local California rates. The service costs 30 euros a year. Zennstrom says about
5 percent of Skype customers pay for one plan or the other.
Zennstrom estimates that as many as 30 percent of Skypers are business clients,
such as Kern and Vollenweider. Nicole Channing, who runs a New York hedge fund
company called Anomaly Capital Partners, says she Skypes people in her San
Francisco office daily.
``We use it as squawk box,'' Channing says. ``It's on all the time. We also
instant message a lot, and if we have to speak, we Skype.''
The world's largest telephone companies - Verizon Communications, SBC
Communications and Tokyo's Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp - are racing
to update their networks to handle Internet calls.
BT Group, Britain's biggest phone company, unveiled plans last year to invest
US$20 billion to build a European network based on technology known as voice
over Internet protocol.
VoIP breaks calls into packets of electronic ones and zeroes and sends the data
over available routes, eliminating the expense of keeping a channel open to
await a call - whether or not one is pending.
VoIP-only companies such as Edison, New Jersey-based Vonage Holdings have racked
up about three million US customers. Vonage's 700,000 subscribers pay US$20 to
US$30 a month. Internet powerhouses Yahoo, Time Warner's America Online and
Microsoft's MSN online service are boosting their voice-messaging capabilities.
Carsten Schloter, chief executive of Swisscom's mobile phone business, says
dropping the price of a phone call can ease defections to Skype.
``It's a question of when does it hurt so much that you react with a price
structure that kills Skype?'' he says.
Price cuts can backfire and hurt the incumbents. Since May, Swisscom has reduced
its fixed-line and mobile phone rates and lowered its earnings and sales
estimates.
In the quarter ended March 31, sales from Swisscom's fixed-line traffic,
including local and long-distance calls, fell 12 percent to 294 million Swiss
francs (HK$1.37 billion) from a year earlier.
Telephone companies aren't about to get wiped out overnight. ``Skype destroys
the value of telcos, but it is not building a replacement business,'' says Lars
Godell, a telecom analyst at Forrester Research. ``Skype does not address any
unmet needs.''
For Skype to be truly successful, it must offer a range of services, such as
call forwarding and voice-mail alerts that pop up in e-mail inboxes. That would
happen if a bigger partner, such as MSN or Yahoo, takes over Skype, Godell
says.
Zennstrom declines to comment on takeover speculation except to say that he has
read the chatter on the Web. In June, the buzz in online chat rooms was that
Yahoo, the most-used Internet site, was about to acquire Skype.
Instead, the California company paid an undisclosed amount for Dialpad
Communications to gain technology that will let Yahoo users make calls to a
telephone from a PC.
``Competitive battles take place over years, not months,'' says Brad
Garlinghouse, Yahoo's vice president for communications products.
``We at Yahoo are focused on the marathon and not on the sprint.'' He declined
to comment on the possibility of Yahoo acquiring Skype.
Phone company rivals say consumers will look beyond Skype's free and low-priced
services and, instead, demand offerings such as high-speed Internet hookups and
movie downloads.
``We've been doing voice for a hundred years,'' says Michelle Swittenberg, who
is responsible for Verizon's VoIP strategy as executive director for consumer
products.
``When the time is right to turn on the engine behind our VoIP product, we'll
integrate it across our wired and wireless network.''
Verizon, with 33 million fixed-line subscribers and 45 million mobile users,
started offering VoiceWing VoIP service in July 2004 at US$34.95 a month. It
has since introduced a US$19.95-a- month plan.
Swittenberg says that more Internet-based products are coming; she declines to
discuss them.
Putting the world's phone-service providers on the defensive isn't bad for
Skype, a company with 145 employees, including software developers, working out
of a drab block in Tallinn, Estonia.
Skype's main office is in a former warehouse on a narrow street at the heart of
London's Soho, with its theaters, clubs, specialist bookstores and two Virgin
Megastores.
In typical Internet startup fashion, about a dozen employees hunch over laptops,
sitting on cheap wooden chairs in the white, loft-style room a stone's throw
from sex shops selling pornography and massages, and coffee shops serving
Italian brews and biscotti. The only nod to luxury is a blue sofa near the main
door, adorned with lime-green Tom Online promotional cushions.
With Skype, Zennstrom has a second chance to create a global Internet company
like Google, the most-used search engine, or Amazon.com, the world's largest
Internet retailer.
Tim Draper, managing director of venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson,
calls Skype a classic disruptive technology.
The term, coined by Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen,
describes a product that bubbles up and eventually overturns the dominant
technology in its market.
Draper compares Skype to free e-mail company Hotmail, purchased by Microsoft in
1998 for US$450 million and now boasting 190 million users.
Contemplating how Skype has sparked a frenzy among the world's biggest
communications firms, Zennstrom cracks a rare smile.
``What I seem to have done is to get the giants running faster,'' he says.
BLOOMBERG
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