Will the Iraq bloodbath ever end?


Mohamad Bazzi


May 6, 2005


  
Baghdad residents try to identify relatives killed in a bomb attack Thursday. Insurgents have predominantly targeted Shiites.
AP

An upsurge in insurgent attacks over the past week that has killed more than 250 Iraqis poses a stark question: will the new regime be able to govern?

The attacks have mainly targeted Iraq's nascent security forces, or people applying to become part of the army and police. Insurgents have also targeted members of the Shiite majority and Kurdish minority - the two groups that dominate the incoming government.

After millions of Iraqis defied insurgent threats by casting ballots for a new parliament on January 30, it took Iraqi politicians three months to agree on forming a government. Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari and his cabinet were sworn in Tuesday, but seven positions are still unfilled, including those of the key oil and defense ministers.

The deadlock over divvying up positions is frustrating to many Iraqis, who argue that leaders should have instead focused their energies on dealing with the insurgency.

"People wanted to see improvement in security and in their daily lives,'' said political analyst Nabil Salim in Baghdad. "Instead, there was a lot of time wasted on political maneuvering.''

For a few weeks after the election, there was a drop in insurgent attacks. Iraqis say that if a new government had been put in place quickly, it could have gained momentum against the guerrillas.

``It was a wasted opportunity,'' Salim said.

By February 28, insurgents had turned the momentum in their favor. That was when a suicide car bomber rammed into a crowd of people outside a police recruiting center in the southern city of Hillah. The bombing killed 125 people, the single deadliest insurgent attack since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime.

On Wednesday, insurgents again targeted the country's security forces: a suicide bomber at a police recruiting station in the northern city of Arbil killed nearly 60 people.

The attacks continued Thursday, including nine policemen shot dead in their squad cars and 15 men who died in a bomb explosion at an army recruitment centre. By consistently attacking the police and army, insurgents are threatening a cornerstone of the US exit strategy from Iraq: training local forces so that US soldiers can be withdrawn. The persistent attacks highlight how unprepared Iraqi forces are to take over security from US troops.

In targeting Iraqi security forces, insurgents are also trying to stoke sectarian tensions. The majority of police and army recruits are Shiites, and they have borne the brunt of insurgent attacks. With Wednesday's bombing in Arbil, which is a mainly Kurdish city, insurgents appear to be extending their reach to the Kurds.

The insurgents are a mix of Islamic militants from neighboring countries and members of Iraq's minority Sunni community, which formed the backbone of Saddam's rule.

``Some terrorists want to instigate a civil war, by trying to line up Shias and Kurds against Sunnis,'' said Fareed Asasard, director of the Kurdish Strategic Studies Center, in northern Iraq. ``But that strategy will not work.''

Iraq's pre-eminent Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has urged his followers not to retaliate against Sunnis. But as attacks on Shia institutions and leaders mount, Iraqis wonder whether Shiites will begin to fight back. If that happens, Iraq could degenerate into a full-scale civil war, and the United States could become mired in the type of sectarian conflict that tore apart Lebanon for 15 years.

It is unclear how long al-Sistani and Shiite politicians will be able to restrain young militants from retaliating. One such force is the militia loyal to renegade Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, which twice fought extended battles last year with US forces.

Al-Sadr's militia are difficult to control because they do not look to senior clerics such as al-Sistani for guidance.

NEWSDAY

 


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