Mainland textile exports rose 29 percent in the first three months of this year, with sales to the United States almost quadrupling in the period, according to the commerce ministry.

The figures underscore a surge that will cause trade friction "for some time,'' the ministry said Monday. China is facing possible attempts by the European Union and the US to stem its textile exports triggered by the removal of a four-decade-old system of global quotas January 1 under a World Trade Organization agreement.

The EU accounts for about 20 percent of global textile and clothing imports, while the US accounts for 24 percent. A US Commerce Department report last week showed mainland apparel imports rose 63 percent in the first quarter, with growth led by cotton dresses at 259 percent.

``The phenomenon of lower costs and higher volume that has come in the wake of the cancellation of the export quotas will continue for some time and may become the focus of the textile trade,'' the mainland's commerce ministry said.

The US textile industry wants the government to impose caps on some mainland goods. The Bush administration has resisted so far. Last week, the Commerce Department began an investigation of imports from China of trousers, knit shirts and underwear.

The investigations kicked off a 90-150 day process for determining if this year's increase warrants a cap.

In the EU, stockings and socks, men's trousers, medical gauze, pullovers and women's suits may become the first targets of any new measures to slow imports. Preliminary figures point to annual increases of more than 100 percent in those categories, exceeding reference levels set by the EU.

Meanwhile, a top government think-tank said China's first-quarter exports may have risen to US$156.2 billion (HK$1.22 trillion), up 35 percent on a year earlier. China's imports in the first three months were expected to have risen 15 percent from a year earlier to US$142.7 billion, the People's Daily quoted a report by the State Information Center as saying.

That would produce a trade surplus of US$13.5 billion for the first three months, the think-tank said, compared with a trade deficit of US$8.4 billion in the first quarter last year.

``Exports have become a significant driving force for rapid gross domestic product growth in the first quarter,'' the think-tank said. High competitiveness of mainland products overseas, relatively robust global economic growth and the weak US dollar were main factors underpinning China's export growth, it said.

In the January and February period, China's imports were up 8.3 percent from a year earlier at US$84.2 billion while exports rose 36.6 percent from a year earlier to US$95.3 billion, creating a surplus of US$11 billion for the period, official data showed.

China's imports have become more important to many of its neighbors, such as Japan and South Korea, which have relied on booming demand from the mainland to spur exports of machinery, components and raw materials.

The government is set to release trade data for the first quarter this week.

BLOOMBERG, REUTERS