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Beijing
will tighten curbs on land use this year, seeking to prevent a rebound in
inflation and fixed-asset investment as Premier Wen Jiabao tries to slow growth
in the world's fastest-expanding major economy.
"China's success in macroeconomic controls isn't permanent,'' National Reform
and Development Commission chairman Ma Kai said in Beijing. "The foundation is
still weak.''
China clamped down on lending to property, steel and other industries last year
to cool investment that the government blamed for stoking inflation.
The government aims to slow growth to 8 percent this year, from an eight-year
high of 9.5 percent in 2004, while capping consumer price increases at 4
percent, Wen said in his annual budget speech to the parliament Saturday.
``It's in local governments' interest to release land for commercial and
industrial development because that translates into more revenue,'' BNP Paribas
Peregrine Securities chief China economist Chen Xingdong said Monday.
``It's very hard for the central government to control those activities.''
Inflation, which eased to 1.9 percent in January from a seven-year high of 5.3
percent in August, may pick up again, Ma said.
Fixed-asset investment growth may also rebound, he said, echoing comments by Wen
at the weekend.
``There's still concern that inflation will accelerate again,'' Beijing
University economist Song Guoqing said at the weekend.
``The government will strengthen land controls this year as part of measures to
curb investment.''
Wen announced plans Saturday to clamp down on urban infrastructure projects,
shift spending to lagging rural areas and cut taxes for farmers, seeking to
narrow the income gap between the 800 million rural dwellers and urban
residents. Growth accelerated last year, helping to sustain global expansion
and fueling a surge in world commodity prices.
The economy almost trebled in size in the past decade and its demand for raw
materials helped fuel a 37 percent jump in copper prices last year and a 34
percent increase in oil costs.
Fixed-asset investment growth eased to 25.8 percent for the year, from 43
percent in the first quarter, while consumer prices rose at their slowest pace
in more than a year in January.
``China's bid to curb inflation hasn't done much to reduce gains in real estate
prices,'' DBS Bank Hong Kong economist Chris Leung said. ``Tightening credit to
developers may be the most effective way to limit gains.''
Mainland housing prices rose by an average of 9.7 percent last year, according
to the statistics bureau, contributing to an inflation rate that averaged 3.9
percent for the year.
Real estate investment climbed 28.1 percent to 1.3 trillion yuan (HK$1.22
trillion) in 2004, slowing from a 29.7 percent pace a year earlier.
Land conservation is ``a priority'' for this year, Ministry of Land and
Resources Vice Minister Li Yuan said Monday.
The government plans to increase spending at a slower rate and sell fewer bonds
for infrastructure this year to help cool the economy, Finance Minister Jin
Renqing said in his budget report at the weekend.
Total spending will rise 13.7 percent to 3.23 trillion yuan and infrastructure
bond sales will be cut by 27 percent to 80 billion yuan, the report said.
BLOOMBERG
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