HK exports to rebound 5pc next yearFinance | Winnie Lee 10 Dec 2020
Hong Kong's exports are expected to rebound 5 percent in the next year even though the fourth-quarter export index remains in the contraction range below 50, according to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.
The Hong Kong export index has rebounded for three consecutive quarters with the export index in the fourth quarter rising by 11.1 to 36.2 quarter-on-quarter, the HKTDC said.
Some Hong Kong companies worried that the Covid-19 pandemic, weakening global demand and Sino-US tensions will bring uncertainty to export prospects.
However, export confidence in major industries has increased significantly this quarter, the HKTDC said.
Among them, the jewelry industry index rose the most quarterly, rising 12.9 points to 33. As for the clothing industry, it was the worst-performing industry, but it rebounded by 11.9 points to 32.9 from a quarter ago.
The HKTDC said that Hong Kong companies responded quickly to the virus and expanded online sales, which made their export performance better than expected.
It decided to adjust the export forecast for this year and the contraction narrowed from 10 percent to 3 percent.
According to the HKTDC, the value of Hong Kong exports in the first 10 months of this year fell by 3.7 percent year-on-year.
With the introduction of the vaccine, mainland China and global business activities are expected to gradually return to normal and exports are expected to have an increase of 5 percent next year, based on the low base effect.
Nicholas Kwan, director of research at HKTDC said, "The worst is over, but it will not have a V-shape rebound. The next year's order prices will still be under pressure."
It is believed that the order price may return to the level before the Sino-US trade war in 2018 in 2022 at the earliest.