Macau casino cash to fall further

Business | Stella Zhai 20 Nov 2019

Brokers are lowering their forecast of revenue growth of Macau's gaming industry in November, as Hong Kong's protests cast a shadow over Macau tourism.

US investment bank Jefferies estimates the gross gaming revenue in Macau will dive by 10-13 percent year-on-year to range from 2.18 billion patacas (HK$2.12 billion)to 2.24 billion patacas in November, compared to its previous forecast of a decline of between 8 percent and 12 percent, as more tourists are canceling trips because of social turmoil. The institution is overweight in Sands China (1928) as its mass-market gaming and non-gaming business takes a greater proportion and will offset the effects from the refurbishment of its Sands Cotai Central.

Citibank cut the forecast for Macau's gaming revenue from 2.3 million patacas to 2.25 million patacas in November, deepening a year-on-year decrease from 8 percent to 10 percent, as the situation in Hong Kong keeps tourist arrivals apart from Guangdong province, away.

Meanwhile, Bernstein said gaming revenue in the city will fall by 10-13 percent year-on-year in November, compared to the previous estimate of a drop of between 6 percent and 10 percent. It also revised its quarterly gaming revenue forecast to range from a 2 percent decline to a 2 percent growth, from a previous 2-6 percent growth target.

The investment bank said daily average gaming revenue by November 17 has shrunk 12 percent to 729 million patacas, dropping 14 percent compared with a quarter ago.

The total spending excluding gaming expenses of visitors to Macau has dropped by 17.2 percent year-on-year to 15.2 billion patacas in the third quarter, said the Statistics and Census Service of Macau. For the first three quarters this year, total spending of visitors amounted to 47.83 billion patacas, sliding 6.7 percent from a year ago. The average spending of visitors from mainland China slumped by 26.7 percent to 1,691 patacas in the third quarter.

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