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China's headlong development has not only
fundamentally reshaped the country's economy but has dramatically changed many
deeply rooted cultural attitudes as well.
Among these is a tendency towards cautious and prudent spending, in which
citizens, imbued with centuries of Confucian conservatism and agrarian thrift,
have refused to spend more than they make. Borrowing and spending, known as
``spending the future's money,'' has long been frowned upon as fiscal
dilettantism.
Even in the 1980s and 1990s, when people wanted to buy expensive consumer
durables - at that time mainly television sets, audio and video equipment and
perhaps motorcycles - their first goal was energetic saving and a forgoing not
just of luxuries but of many necessities. When they had enough money, they
would make lump-sum cash payments.
But the ethic of delayed gratification is being eroded and old consumption
habits are changing. The spending habits of young Chinese especially have
become a favorite subject of economists as the young increasingly buy on
borrowed money to maintain trendy lifestyles.
In this regard, they are catching up with their counterparts in Western
countries, the United States in particular.
According to a recent survey, average annual consumption per person among urban
youths on the mainland has now reached 15,288 yuan (HK$14,408) - against a per
capita disposable income of urban residents that is considerably below that -
averaging about 9,000 yuan last year.
This indicates that an average urban youth outspends what he or she earns
considerably, so he or she must borrow.
Among the survey respondents, 26-year-old Zhang Jie is a typical consumer in
debt.
Zhang, working with a fund management firm in Shanghai, recently bought a
900,000-yuan flat ``without hesitation,'' although she had only 50,000 yuan in
savings, according to the survey.
``The down payment for this flat was 184,000 yuan,'' she said. ``Of course, my
savings are far from enough. But my parents gave me financial aid in this
regard.''
The balance is to be paid through a 25-year mortgage, for which she has to pay
4,500 yuan a month.
``I make about 10,000 a month now,'' she said. ``I expect I'll earn more and
more. So it is no problem for me to pay the monthly installment at all.''
Zhang's words reflect a confidence Chinese youth has for the future. This is
important, it reflects not only confidence in a personal future but the
economy's as well.
Zhang's case is very revealing in that it may also point to another reason why
urban Chinese youths borrow and spend - even if they don't want to, they have
to if they are to keep up with their peers.
That is because, in a market economy, buying housing always involves big sums
and most consumers have to borrow mortgage loans.
The mainland has produced a bumper crop of the rich and in some cases super-rich
who can afford to pay millions of yuan for luxury housing and cars. But these
are just the few. Most people, particularly wage earners, must rely on loans to
buy flats or cars.
In China, until the early 1990s, it was the the state's responsibility to
provide housing for its employees and urban residents.
But as a result of reforms by former premier Zhu Rongji in the early 1990s,
aimed at privatizing and thus revitalizing the housing sector, the government
sold housing to the then occupants at big discounts, in effect subsidizing them
to own the places in which they resided.
As a result, mainland urban residents in their forties or older, particularly
those working in government or state-owned work units, now almost all own their
housing.
They do not need mortgages.
But those who began their careers after the mid-1990s no longer enjoy these
benefits. They have to handle their housing on their own - either renting or
owning.
But the Chinese are famous for their fondness for putting their savings into
real estate, known also as immovable assets. In reality, the urban young can no
longer rely on saving enough money before buying durables, which today have
become housing and cars - items so expensive that the traditional save-and-buy
philosophy is outdated and ineffective.
In Zhang's case, for example, it is impossible for her to save enough money to
buy her flat. Even if she were to save as much as 5,000 yuan of her 10,000
monthly salary on average, it would take her 15 years to accumulate 900,000
yuan (excluding savings interest). And her savings are certain to be outpaced
by the rising price of flats over that time.
Therefore, it can be said that the habit of consumption is being forced onto
Zhang and her generation by changes in the economy and the living environment
of China.
That mainland phenomenon is similar to what happened in Hong Kong several
decades ago.
Economically, it is progress for mainland society to become accustomed gradually
to credit consumption. Certainly, this helps to stimulate domestic consumption,
which in turn boosts economic growth - providing banks exercise prudence in
making loans - an ideal that is unfortunately far from the reality in China.
Traditionally, the Chinese have disliked credit and repayment. As credit
consumption increases, bank risk thus also grows.
Take car loans for example. Mainland banks began rushing to grant auto loans
just a few years ago. But last year when car prices started to slide, legions
of borrowers defaulted. At one point last year, banks' non-performing car loans
were reported to have risen to nearly 100 billion yuan. Thus it's apparent that
China has a long way to go to perfect its new credit economy.
wu.zhong@singtaonewscorp.com
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