Leap up the credit ladder



May 9, 2005


China's headlong development has not only fundamentally reshaped the country's economy but has dramatically changed many deeply rooted cultural attitudes as well.

Among these is a tendency towards cautious and prudent spending, in which citizens, imbued with centuries of Confucian conservatism and agrarian thrift, have refused to spend more than they make. Borrowing and spending, known as ``spending the future's money,'' has long been frowned upon as fiscal dilettantism.

Even in the 1980s and 1990s, when people wanted to buy expensive consumer durables - at that time mainly television sets, audio and video equipment and perhaps motorcycles - their first goal was energetic saving and a forgoing not just of luxuries but of many necessities. When they had enough money, they would make lump-sum cash payments.

But the ethic of delayed gratification is being eroded and old consumption habits are changing. The spending habits of young Chinese especially have become a favorite subject of economists as the young increasingly buy on borrowed money to maintain trendy lifestyles.

In this regard, they are catching up with their counterparts in Western countries, the United States in particular.

According to a recent survey, average annual consumption per person among urban youths on the mainland has now reached 15,288 yuan (HK$14,408) - against a per capita disposable income of urban residents that is considerably below that - averaging about 9,000 yuan last year.

This indicates that an average urban youth outspends what he or she earns considerably, so he or she must borrow.

Among the survey respondents, 26-year-old Zhang Jie is a typical consumer in debt.

Zhang, working with a fund management firm in Shanghai, recently bought a 900,000-yuan flat ``without hesitation,'' although she had only 50,000 yuan in savings, according to the survey.

``The down payment for this flat was 184,000 yuan,'' she said. ``Of course, my savings are far from enough. But my parents gave me financial aid in this regard.''

The balance is to be paid through a 25-year mortgage, for which she has to pay 4,500 yuan a month.

``I make about 10,000 a month now,'' she said. ``I expect I'll earn more and more. So it is no problem for me to pay the monthly installment at all.''

Zhang's words reflect a confidence Chinese youth has for the future. This is important, it reflects not only confidence in a personal future but the economy's as well.

Zhang's case is very revealing in that it may also point to another reason why urban Chinese youths borrow and spend - even if they don't want to, they have to if they are to keep up with their peers.

That is because, in a market economy, buying housing always involves big sums and most consumers have to borrow mortgage loans.

The mainland has produced a bumper crop of the rich and in some cases super-rich who can afford to pay millions of yuan for luxury housing and cars. But these are just the few. Most people, particularly wage earners, must rely on loans to buy flats or cars.

In China, until the early 1990s, it was the the state's responsibility to provide housing for its employees and urban residents.

But as a result of reforms by former premier Zhu Rongji in the early 1990s, aimed at privatizing and thus revitalizing the housing sector, the government sold housing to the then occupants at big discounts, in effect subsidizing them to own the places in which they resided.

As a result, mainland urban residents in their forties or older, particularly those working in government or state-owned work units, now almost all own their housing.

They do not need mortgages.

But those who began their careers after the mid-1990s no longer enjoy these benefits. They have to handle their housing on their own - either renting or owning.

But the Chinese are famous for their fondness for putting their savings into real estate, known also as immovable assets. In reality, the urban young can no longer rely on saving enough money before buying durables, which today have become housing and cars - items so expensive that the traditional save-and-buy philosophy is outdated and ineffective.

In Zhang's case, for example, it is impossible for her to save enough money to buy her flat. Even if she were to save as much as 5,000 yuan of her 10,000 monthly salary on average, it would take her 15 years to accumulate 900,000 yuan (excluding savings interest). And her savings are certain to be outpaced by the rising price of flats over that time.

Therefore, it can be said that the habit of consumption is being forced onto Zhang and her generation by changes in the economy and the living environment of China.

That mainland phenomenon is similar to what happened in Hong Kong several decades ago.

Economically, it is progress for mainland society to become accustomed gradually to credit consumption. Certainly, this helps to stimulate domestic consumption, which in turn boosts economic growth - providing banks exercise prudence in making loans - an ideal that is unfortunately far from the reality in China.

Traditionally, the Chinese have disliked credit and repayment. As credit consumption increases, bank risk thus also grows.

Take car loans for example. Mainland banks began rushing to grant auto loans just a few years ago. But last year when car prices started to slide, legions of borrowers defaulted. At one point last year, banks' non-performing car loans were reported to have risen to nearly 100 billion yuan. Thus it's apparent that China has a long way to go to perfect its new credit economy.

wu.zhong@singtaonewscorp.com

 


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