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Bank of Communications has all but decided to
delay the Shanghai half of a planned mainland-Hong Kong initial share offering
worth US$1.5-2 billion (HK$11.7-15.6 billion), sources close to the deal said.
China's fifth-largest bank, one-fifth owned by British lender HSBC, will proceed
with the Hong Kong portion of the IPO, next month at the earliest, offering 12
percent to 15 percent of its enlarged share capital to investors.
But Shanghai's worsening stock market and a strong pipeline of competing A-share
IPOs have soured the mood of the bank and its financial advisers for a mainland
share. ``The Shanghai IPO is not going to happen for the time being - it won't
be a concurrent deal,'' said one source with direct knowledge of the deal.
``The A-share market is not strong enough to do the deal,'' said another
well-informed source. ``There was a small hope factor but the [Shanghai] market
is not going anywhere.''
A Bank of Communications spokesman declined to comment. Officials at HSBC and
Goldman Sachs, the two banks underwriting the bank's Hong Kong stock sale, also
declined to comment.
The bank's efforts to sell shares simultaneously in Hong Kong and Shanghai have
been in doubt for months.
In February, The Standard reported that it was likely to scrap its
Shanghai IPO due to weak mainland markets. Bankers questioned at the time
whether mainland investors had the appetite for a US$1 billion local listing.
Since then, mainland markets have sunk even further. While neither the bank nor
its ultimate boss, the Ministry of Finance, has officially pulled the plug, it
would probably take a stunning rally in Shanghai shares for the sale to go
ahead.
``Investors [in China] have been burned so many years in a row now, so they
don't want to invest in IPOs,'' said Joe Zhang, co-head of China research at
UBS and a former Chinese central bank official. ``You can see here that even if
it's a shiny stock they still have a problem selling it.''
A strong pipeline of A-share listings has further dampened investor sentiment,
with coal giant China Shenhua, slated to complete the first dual
mainland-overseas IPO next month, at the head of the queue.
``Mainland investors were asked what new stock they would choose to invest in,
and the answer was not Bank of Communications,'' said one China-based fund
manager. ``Maybe they can get it reignited later this year - we'll see,
anything is possible.''
In another blow for the mainland lender, the Bank of Communications said
Thursday its 2004 earnings were slashed 63 percent to 1.6 billion yuan (HK$1.5
billion), after Beijing canceled a 9.67 billion yuan tax credit. The bank
claimed the tax benefit following a state-sanctioned sale of 41.4 billion yuan
in nonperforming loans last year to a mainland asset management firm. The tax
rule interpretation by Beijing - which allows lenders to claim tax benefits on
uncollectible loans - has potentially serious implications for the country's
big four lenders. Construction Bank and Bank of China both benefited from
large-scale loan clearouts last year. elliot.wilson@singtaonewscorp.com
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