Ban Ki Moon, a South Korean, has the good intention of helping bring democratic change to Burma, the country the last Asian UN secretary general came from. U Thant was head of the world body from 1961 to 1971.

The UN chief's visit is expected to center around three important issues: to press ahead with democratic reforms in the country; to urge the junta to release political prisoners, including opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi; and to press for inclusive and credible elections in 2010.

There are two schools of thought on the secretary general's visit. There are groups who advocate that Ban needs to go to Burma regardless of what the outcome might be and press for the release of political prisoners. There are others who believe the visit could legitimize Suu Kyi's trial and demean the position of the secretary general.

This mission is partly a continuation of the secretary general's good offices' ongoing engagement, and also due to overwhelming appeals by several rights organizations and democracy activists. Last December, 112 former presidents and prime ministers urged Ban to visit Burma and press the military junta to release all political prisoners before the year end. Ban stated that he would visit Burma when he saw the likelihood of any positive outcome.

The continued arrest of dissidents in recent months and the trial of Suu Kyi have compelled the secretary general to embark on this mission. Ban and Gambari received more than 670,000 signatures worldwide urging them to press the junta to release over 2,100 political prisoners.

"The release of all political prisoners is the first and most important step toward freedom and democracy in Burma," said the petition submitted to the secretary general's office last month. The signatures were reportedly collected in 10 weeks. Through Gambari, the UN chief may have been given assurance of the military regime's willingness to reach some sort of compromise with opposition groups in the face of mounting international pressure and condemnation.

It is largely expected that Ban will meet military chief Than Shwe, and perhaps Suu Kyi. He may be able to convince Than Shwe to release some prisoners, including political prisoners. However, leading dissidents of the 1988 democracy uprising are unlikely to be released anytime soon.

In an attempt to bring credibility to the upcoming election in 2010, the military may like to resume dialogue with Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy. The junta will ask the NLD to annul the 1990 general election result. In return, the NLD will ask for the release of its leader Suu Kyi and other political prisoners.

The opposition is expected to ask for the review of the basic principles of the military-drafted constitution. The State Peace and Development Council - the military regime's official name - is unlikely to agree to making any major changes to the constitution, which guarantees 75 percent seats in the parliament for the military.

The SPDC will try to convince the visiting UN chief that ethnic minorities participated in the constitution drafting and are willing to participate in the upcoming election. In the absence of any UN mediation or international observers, the ethnic minorities will be forced to cast votes anyway.

Than Shwe and his military commanders understand that Ban has limited power without endorsement from the Security Council. There is no foreseeable sign of the Security Council's intervention as long as China and Russia maintain friendly relations with the Burmese military regime.

In the absence of strong international backing or unusual developments within the military, the eighth visit of Gambari and the much-anticipated second visit of Ban cannot deliver the much- needed democratic change, which represents the rights of all ethnic nationalities of the Union of Burma.

Given the nature of the limited roles and powers they have, Ban and Gambari should not be blamed entirely for the failure of the UN mission. Neither sanctions nor engagement alone is effective. It is a coordinated international strategy that is needed to deal with the Burmese military junta.

Nehginpao Kipgen is general secretary of the US- based Kuki International Forum (www.kukiforum.com) and a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in modern Burma (1947-2004).