New yuan credits issued by commercial banks could reach eight trillion yuan to nine trillion yuan (HK$9.08 trillion to HK$10.21 trillion) next year, although the central bank is widely expected to move to cool lending to curb inflation. In the first three quarters of the year, new loans hit 8.67 trillion yuan as a result of Beijing's four trillion yuan stimulus plan to boost the economy and to save jobs.

Loans were up more than 30 percent from the same period last year. Growth is expected to continue in the fourth quarter.

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In an article entitled "China Banking Development Report" by the mainland's fifth largest lender, chief economist Lian Ping said a cooling- down of loan growth depends on the government fine-tuning its policies and the expected slowing of fixed-asset investments.

Lian said new loans will continue to grow at the same pace next year as Beijing needs to maintain the stimulus effect. He expects loans to grow by 20 to 22 percent.

But Lian said as a result of regulatory warnings there may be a drop in bill financing - short-term credit which can easily be channeled to the speculative stock market instead of the real economy.