Sunday, December 6, 2009   


China inflation splits opinions

Friday, November 06, 2009

Debate is raging over whether inflation will be an issue for China in the coming year.

Concern over inflation is "unwarranted," according to Morgan Stanley China economist Wang Qing, however, statistics bureau chief economist Yao Jingyuan warned Beijing should keep inflation under control.

"A trajectory of CPI inflation for 2010, featuring relatively high money growth but relatively low inflation, would be a repeat of 2000/01," said Wang, who sees inflation at only 2 to 3 percent next year.

As such, Wang said policy tightening is unlikely until mid-2010.

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences chief economist Li Yang agrees, saying widescale inflation is unlikely next year. And price inflation is "more preferable" than deflation where economics is concerned, he added.

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But National Bureau of Statistics chief economist Yao is not optimistic.

Yao said Beijing should beware of pursuing excessive growth in the rest of the year and 2010.

For next year, economists have estimated an average economic growth of 10.5 to 11 percent and inflation of about 3 to 5 percent.

Hang Seng Bank (0011) senior economist Bill Leung said China is expected to maintain the same steady pace of growth, at about 8.5 percent next year, as the global economy and exports recover.

He said pressure from overheating in housing and stock markets may persuade authorities to hike banks' required reserve ratio before they adjust interest rates. KATHERINE NG


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