The limelight shifted two years ago with the opening of two competing casinos, the Galaxy Waldo and the Sands Macau, midway between the Lisboa and the city ferry terminal. Keen to make a splash, the newcomers lured away gamblers, investors, staff and partners with promises of better treatment and a new deal.

This fall, the Casino Lisboa will once again be at the center of attention. The gilded cage isn't getting another facelift, but rather a ring of three towering new neighbors: the unconventional, three-tier, HK$2.5 billion Galaxy StarWorld, the bronze, arcing, HK$8.5 billion Wynn Macau and a bigger and better version of the original, the HK$3 billion Grand Lisboa rising like a lotus flower with a huge golden egg at its base.

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Even the least costly, the StarWorld, carries a bigger price tag than any casino project ever built previously in Macau. The three will also be the first newly constructed hotels developed by any casino operator since Macau formally opened the gambling market to competition four years ago.

The StarWorld will bring the first real payoff on Galaxy Entertainment Group's HK$18.4 billion buyout of the Lui family's gambling interests last year. The Wynn Macau will mark the arrival of Steve Wynn, credited with repeatedly re-energizing the Las Vegas Strip, as Macau's fourth casino operator.

The Grand Lisboa, meanwhile, could provide momentum for owner Sociedade de Jogos de Macau's stalled HK$15 billion initial public stock offering.

Whether or not global stock market jitters continue, Macau's casino market is set for a boom this fall that will likely yank along some shares. Already this year, casino revenues are growing much faster than in 2005 and a number of Macau gaming-linked Hong Kong, Australian and US stocks hit new oneyear or all-time highs this spring.

During the first four months of 2006, casino revenues rose 18.5 percent over the same period the previous year.

"2006 should be a back-end loaded year with most big casinos opening in the second half," wrote analyst Karen Tang of Deutsche Bank in a recent research note. "Hence 2006 gaming revenue growth should exceed our full- year expectations of 16 to 20 percent."

Tang attributes the growth in part to new and expanded casinos and other attractions, including Macau Fisherman's Wharf, a themed shopping and dining complex that will have a gaming area, the Grand Emperor casino hotel and Galaxy's President, Rio and Grand Waldo casinos.

The three upcoming casino hotels are a breed apart. Others that have opened in recent years, including the Grand Emperor and Rio, were set up inside converted office buildings, or in the case of the Grand Waldo, developed by third parties.

Some casinos, such as the President, were retrofitted into existing hotels. Other hotels, such as the Holiday Inn Macau, shuttered spas and restaurants to expand their casinos.

The biggest moneyspinner among Macau's newer casinos, the Sands Macau, opened without any guest rooms and still has just a small number of private suites.

The building of the StarWorld, Wynn Macau and Grand Lisboa from the ground up makes them more expensive, but also creates potential for more interesting features to draw tourists than gussied up office towers.

Observers credit visitor excitement about the opening last year of the Wynn Las Vegas, which the Wynn Macau resembles in design, as a key factor in driving up Las Vegas Strips annual gaming revenues by almost HK$3 billion and dashing fears the Strips take would fall behind Macau's.

"New hotel casinos attract more visitors," wrote JPMorgan analyst Billy Ng in a recent market report. "If Las Vegas could grow at 20 percent in 1994 due to the opening of new mega resorts, we believe such growth should be achievable in Macau. The macro environment for Macau appears more favorable than that of Las Vegas, thanks to the strong growth potential of China."

As occurred in late 2004 with the impact of the opening of the Sands and Waldo, surging visitor and gaming revenue figures should recapture the interest of investors who may have pulled back to lower risk investments in recent weeks.

"Two years ago, Macau was a story where you either believed or didn't believe," says Wahid Chammas, senior research analyst with fund managers Janus Capital Group in Denver, Colorado. "Now you are seeing buildings erected. You are seeing the reality."

Wrote Ng: "We believe investor interest in Macau will continue to grow. However, simply having a Macau label will not be sufficient to guarantee success, given the increasing competition."

Indeed, equity investors are much more fickle these days than two years ago, when any company rumored to be getting involved in Macau gaming saw its shares skyrocket. Companies such as Northern International

Holdings and Victory Group that never translated talk into deals trade far below the peak prices achieved in January 2005, when the Macau concept reached its apogee.

Shares of International Entertainment, a New World Group company that has yet to complete a deal announced in 2004 for a 40 percent stake in a casino hotel under construction next to StarWorld, haven't recovered either. A-Max Holdings, which spent HK$3.34 billion for half of the Greek Mythology Casino, suffered as the casino's ambitious growth plans stalled. Honesty Treasure International Holdings and Century Legend (Holdings), which did complete deals for large casino hotel stakes, are doing little better.

The upcoming openings carry significant risk for owners Galaxy Entertainment, Wynn Resorts and SJM. The most immediate is that of delays. The Grand Emperor, for example, was slated to open last September, but repeated postponements set back its debut until January, sending shares of co- owner Emperor Entertainment Hotel into a slump.

The Wynn Macau, scheduled to open September 5, appears far more ready than the StarWorld, which has set its opening for August, although a spokesman said Thursday that the target is simply the third quarter. The StarWorld, in turn, is much further along than the Grand Lisboa, but SJM has said only that the casino portion will open by year end with the hotel tower to be completed in 2008.

A more important risk is that the Macau market might not support grand casino hotels. Despite the new attractions added in recent years, most visitors to the city continue to leave the same day they arrive. Those who do stay overnight usually leave the next day.

The three new casino hotels are counting on generating significant revenue from their guest rooms and restaurants, not just their casinos. Helped by average room rates of US$293 a night, the Wynn Las Vegas generates almost 20 percent more revenue from its non-gaming services than from gaming, but this is unheard of in Macau.

High-end hotel rooms and retail outlets may not be a concept that translates easily to visitors from China, Standard & Poors said in a market report this month. As a frame of reference, during 2005, the hotel occupancy rate in Macau was about 71 percent, with an average daily rate below US$100.

The ante will be raised further by the giant casino resort complexes planned for the Cotai reclamation area between Taipa and Coloane islands. Designs for these complexes generally feature big convention halls, shopping malls, performance theaters and holiday apartments, all to draw visitors into longer stays and bigger spending.