Bush recently characterized his final 22 months as "a sprint to the finish." Instead, it looks more like a limp to the end.

The coalition of right-wing business, fundamentalist religion, conservative media and anti-immigrant populism that Bush rode to victory has crumbled. Bush's remaining time has become completely overshadowed by the race to replace him.

By next year's address all eyes will be on the presidential primaries. He will try to regain relevance, but like Hong Kongers so quickly forgot Tung Chee- hwa, Americans appear eager to put Bush behind them.

They also appear ready to do something more radical than replacing one elite white man with another. For the first time in American history a woman has a real chance to become president. Simultaneously, an African-American has stirred waves of enthusiasm, making him the first black candidate with a chance.

Barack Obama is not only black, his Kenyan father sent him to a Muslim school for a few years while they lived abroad. This makes Obama one of very few presidential candidates who has lived overseas for any length of time, the first to ever have any family ties to Islamic culture.

Of course, John McCain, a likely Republican candidate, spent more than five years abroad. So he has considerable foreign experience too. But that was as a prisoner of war in Hanoi.

That experience apparently made him determined that Americans win wars whatever the cost in lives and treasure. He has been calling for more troops in Iraq since the beginning.

Polls show support for a McCain presidency plummeting.

Odds are if the Iraq war is still going, Republicans will lose any chance at the White House in 2008. So who is running for the Democratic nomination takes on even greater significance.

If Obama becomes president or vice president, few should doubt he will make a dramatic impact on perceptions of the US abroad.

China, which has been currying favor in Africa for decades and cuddling up with Muslims everywhere but on its own soil, will suddenly encounter a formidable American counterweight to its diplomacy.

The severe damage inflicted by the neoconservative Bush regime on America's image and influence abroad could reverse far more rapidly than anyone anticipates.

Former first lady Hillary Clinton has been deeply involved in politics since helping her husband campaign for Arkansas governor in the early 1980s. Former president Bill Clinton is acknowledged by all as one of the most gifted campaigners and astute political analysts alive today.

As first man or whatever they would call him, Bill Clinton would be able to work his persuasive magic abroad with renewed authority.

With the Clintons odds are high US foreign relations would improve considerably.

But Hillary and Obama are not alone in being firsts or in marshalling strong foreign experience credentials. Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico also threw his hat into the ring, making him the first viable Hispanic candidate for president. A former UN ambassador, Richardson also has extensive experience in foreign affairs.

He would become a hero to Latin America, again shoring up a blackened American image that the likes of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega have used to gain power and global influence.

A foreign policy dream ticket might be Hillary for president, Obama as vice president and Richardson as secretary of state. With Bill Clinton marshalling Hollywood and joining hands with the likes of former Microsoft chief Bill Gates in pushing American philanthropy abroad, an Asian-American with ties to India or China as secretary of commerce or treasury is the only thing lacking to switch American influence from its absolute nadir under Bush to an all-time peak.

But even the chance of a dramatic change in America's fortunes would be impossible without democratic elections. Yes, the 2004 election put Bush and Cheney back in. But 2006 knocked the stuffing out of the right-wing ideologues who only see power growing out of oil barrels or gun barrels.

Democracy is a self-correcting system.

In two years the American electorate reversed course. In two more years it will likely make a radical change. Meanwhile, 10 years after the 1997 handover with no democratic elections in sight, we are looking at five more years of no choice, little real change, and fading hope.

Michael DeGolyer is a professor of the government and international studies department of Hong Kong Baptist University