Wednesday, February 10, 2010   


Mainland money supply and loan growth add pace

Katherine Ng

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Both China's money supply and loan growth accelerated in April, adding pressure on the government to control consumer prices.

"The acceleration in money supply and loan growth means Beijing will need to work harder on the tightening policy," said Isaac Meng, a Beijing- based senior economist at BNP Paribas Securities.

Qi Jingmei, senior economist at the State Information Center, a government think-tank, said: "It is common for government to relax liquidity after major natural disasters. I would doubt if the central bank will continue the tight policy in coming months."

Lehman China economist Sun Mingchun said the government has been relying more on reserve ratio increases and other quantified measures to curb inflation. "There should be three more reserve ratio hikes attaining a record of 18 percent this year," he added.

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Swelling money supply and credit lending are the main reasons for surging prices in the mainland, and the capital needed for rebuilding after the earthquake will add pressure on the government's monetary policy, economists say.

The central bank has ordered commercial lenders to put aside a further 50 basis points of money as reserves, keeping 200 billion yuan (HK$222 billion) more in the banking system, with effect from next Tuesday.

By the end of April, money supply in the mainland rose 16.9 percent to 42.9 trillion yuan, while yuan lending was up 14.7 percent from a year earlier to 28 trillion yuan, data released yesterday by the People's Bank of China showed. New yuan loan growth was 463.9 billion yuan last month from 283.4 trillion yuan in March, bringing the total to 1.8 trillion yuan for the first four months.

"The acceleration is a bit higher than expected, especially when compared with the first quarter. However it is normal, for usually the first month in the second quarter is expansionary," Meng said.

For the same period, new yuan deposits rose 17.7 percent, with household savings rising 99.2 billion yuan from a year earlier.


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