|Think tank predicts stable home prices next year
Home prices in the largest cities may peak in the first quarter and drop at the end of next year, according to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The green paper on China's housing sector said the growth rate of home prices is expected to stabilize throughout next year.
The price of homes in large Chinese cities continued to rise from a year earlier in November, latest official statistics show.
New home prices increased month on month in 66 of the 70 major cities monitored by the government last month, up from 65 in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, Xinhua reports.
Average home prices in these cities climbed 0.6 percent in November from the previous month, slowing from a 0.7-percent rise in October, indicating the growth rate is losing its steam.
The growth momentum has eased as the central and local government regulations made an impact and market expectations changed, according to Zhang Xu, a researcher of property brokerage firm HomeLink.
The report forecasts that home prices in first-tier cities may reach their peak in the first quarter next year, stabilize in the second and third quarters, and gradually decrease in the last quarter, said Ni Pengfei, director of the Urban and Property Research Center of the National Academy of Economic Strategy.
Meanwhile, the bulk of housing demand has been exhausted, and developers' previous land-buying means a large land supply next year, all contributing to the expected price growth stabilization, according to analysts.
As major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are still attracting many new residents, demand remains robust and prices will likely remain high in the short term, the report said.