Friday, April 25, 2014   

Analysts say traders priced in probable Fed tapering
(12-17 19:43)

Asian markets closed mostly higher as Wall Street provided a positive lead following upbeat US data before a Federal Reserve meeting Tuesday.
The US dollar eased against the yen but remained up from Monday's levels in Asia, as investors wait to see whether the Fed will pre back stimulus.
Tokyo edged up 0.83 percent, or 125.72 points, to 15,278.63, Sydney closed up 0.27 percent, or 13.6 points, at 5,103.2 and Seoul ended 0.23 percent, or 4.59 points, higher at 1,965.74, AFP reports.
But Hong Kong lost 0.20 percent, or 45.43 points, to end at 23,069.23 and Shanghai fell 0.45 percent, or 9.78 points, to 2,151.08.
Global markets have mostly fallen over the past week as investors speculate about the future of the Fed's US$85 billion a month bond-buying, which has helped fuel an equities rally since it was unveiled in September last year.
But as the US central bank prepares for a two-day meeting, investors in most markets picked up cheap stocks after another set of positive US figures showing industrial output surged a solid 1.1 percent in November.
Also Monday, preliminary data indicated US manufacturing expanded for a fourth consecutive month in December.
On Wall Street, the Dow gained 0.82 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.63 percent and the Nasdaq picked up 0.71 percent.
Markit Economics also said business activity in the 17-nation euro zone ticked up in December, although there was still weakness in France.
Market-watchers said traders had priced in any reduction in the US stimulus following upbeat data, including on unemployment and economic growth, as well as the expected passage of a bipartisan budget deal through Congress that will avert another government shutdown.
“Over the past week or so, the implied probability of 'tapering' by the Fed has increased. The US budget deal and better retail sales for November were some of the catalysts for a change in sentiment towards tapering happening at the December [Fed] meeting,'' said analysts at Nomura in a research note.
It added that 37 percent of polled clients expected the move this month, slightly more than those forecasting a January move.
“It has been priced with a very high probability for one of the next three meetings, and it may not matter greatly if the tapering starts in December, or in January or March.''
In the forex market the US dollar dipped slightly against the yen but remained higher than its Monday levels in Tokyo. It had suffered a sell-off Friday after hitting a five-year high of 103.93 yen.
The greenback was at 102.98 yen in afternoon trade, against 103.02 yen late in New York after slipping to 102.62 yen at one point Monday. The euro was quoted at US$1.3776 and 141.84 yen against US$1.3761 and 141.77 yen.
Gold fetched US$1,239.20 compared with US$1,229.05 late Monday.

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