Third of world population at risk in event of pandemic
(05-08 19:46)
The World Health Organization has said that in a pandemic situation it is ''reasonable'' to estimate that a third of the world's population will catch the swine flu virus.
''If you look at past pandemics, it would be a reasonable estimate that a third of the population would be infected'' if the current swine flu outbreak became a pandemic, said Keiji Fukuda, acting assistant director general of the UN health agency.
Fukuda made the point in response to mounting concerns that the WHO may have over reacted given that most swine flu cases have turned out to be mild.
He said that, in considering how to deal with such outbreaks, the WHO has to take into account the fact in a full-blown pandemic, even if only a small percentage are to develop serious illness or die from the disease, a large absolute number of people will be affected.
He stressed that the estimate is based on past pandemics and that it is ''very premature'' to forecast how many may die from a pandemic as it remains unclear what proportion of infected people are getting seriously ill or dying from the H1N1 virus.
The situation is still ''evolving,'' he said.
With the southern hemisphere heading into winter, it is uncertain if the virus will take hold in that region where there are more developing countries than richer countries as in the northern hemisphere, he added.
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE |
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